Maryland 2008 presidential primary and superdelegates

CP: - Delegate count - updated Griffin (Obama) citations

←Older revision Revision as of 16:00, 6 May 2008 Line 399: Line 399: | | | [[Janice Griffin]] | [[Janice Griffin]] -| Undeclared <ref name="DemConWatch" />+| [[Barack Obama]]<ref name="Dean_25">Avi Zenilman, [http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0408/9698_Page2.html "The Dean 25 could decide Clinton's fate"], ''Politico'', april 18, 2008</ref> (wobble) | | | | Line 472: Line 472: | 11 | 11 (1 wobblers) (1 wobblers) -| 6+| 7 -(0 wobblers)+(1 wobblers) | 11 | 11 (1 wobbling Clinton, 0 wobbling Obama) (1 wobbling Clinton, 0 wobbling Obama) -| 28+| 29 |- |- Line 488: Line 488: | Grand delegate total | Grand delegate total | 39 | 39 -| 48+| 49 | 11 | 11 -| 98+| 99 |} |} |} |}

The Housing Crisis Is Over - WSJ.com (by: VVance)

The Housing Crisis Is Over By CYRIL MOULLE-BERTEAUX May 6, 2008; Page A23 The dire headlines coming fast and furious in the financial and popular press suggest that the housing crisis is intensifying. Yet it is very likely that April 2008 will mark the bottom of the U.S. housing market. Yes, the housing market is bottoming right now. How can this be? For starters, a bottom does not mean that prices are about to return to the heady days of 2005. That probably wont happen for another 15 years. It just means that the trend is no longer getting worse, which is the critical factor. Most people forget that the current housing bust is nearly three years old. Home sales peaked in July 2005. New home sales are down a staggering 63% from peak levels of 1.4 million. Housing starts have fallen more than 50% and, adjusted for population growth, are back to the trough levels of 1982. Furthermore, residential construction is close to 15-year lows at 3.8% of GDP; by the fourth quarter of this year, it will probably hit the lowest level ever. So whats going to stop the housing decline? Very simply, the same thing that caused the bust: affordability. The boom made housing unaffordable for many American families, especially first-time home buyers. During the 1990s and early 2000s, it took 19% of average monthly income to service a conforming mortgage on the average home purchased. By 2005 and 2006, it was absorbing 25% of monthly income. For first time buyers, it went from 29% of income to 37%. That just proved to be too much. Prices got so high that people who intended to actually live in the houses they purchased (as opposed to speculators) stopped buying. This caused the bubble to burst. Since then, house prices have fallen 10%-15%, while incomes have kept growing (albeit more slowly recently) and mortgage rates have come down 70 basis points from their highs. As a result, it now takes 19% of monthly income for the average home buyer, and 31% of monthly income for the firsttime home buyer, to purchase a house. In other words, homes on average are back to being as affordable as during the best of times in the 1990s. Numerous households that had been priced out of the market can now afford to get in. The next question is: Even if home sales pick up, how can home prices stop falling with so many houses vacant and unsold? The flip but true answer:because they always do. In the past five major housing market corrections (and there were some big ones, such as in the early 1980s when home sales also fell by 50%-60% and prices fell 12%-15% in real terms), every time home sales bottomed, the pace of house-price declines halved within one or two months. The explanation is that by the time home sales stop declining, inventories of unsold homes have usually already started falling in absolute terms and begin to peak out in "months of supply" terms. Thats the case right now: New home inventories peaked at 598,000 homes in July 2006, and stand at 482,000 homes as of the end of March. This inventory is equivalent to 11 months of supply, a 25-year high – but it is similar to 1974, 1982 and 1991 levels, which saw a subsequent slowing in home-price declines within the next six months. Inventories are declining because construction activity has been falling for such a long time that home completions are now just about undershooting new home sales. In a few months, completions of new homes for sale could be undershooting new home sales by 50,000-100,000 annually. Inventories will drop even faster to 400,000 – or seven months of supply – by the end of 2008. This shift in nventories will have a significant impact on prices, although house prices wont stop falling entirely until inventories reach five months of supply sometime in 2009. A five-month supply has historically signaled tightness in the housing market. Many pundits claim that house prices need to fall another 30% to bring them back in line with where theyve been historically. This is usually based on an analysis of house prices adjusted for inflation: Real house prices are 30% above their 40-year, inflation-adjusted average, so they must fall 30%. This simplistic analysis is appealing on the surface, but is flawed for a variety of reasons. Most importantly, it neglects the fact that a great majority of Americans buy their houses with mortgages. And if one buys a house with a mortgage, the most important factor in deciding what to pay for the house is how much of ones income is required to be able to make the mortgage payments on the house. Today the rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage is 5.7%. Back in 1981, the rate hit 18.5%. Comparing todays house prices to the 1970s or 1980s, when mortgage rates were stratospheric, is misguided and misleading. This is all good news for the broader economy. The housing bust has been subtracting a full percentage point from GDP for almost two years now, which is very large for a sector that represents less than 5% of economic activity. When the rate of house-price declines halves, there will be a wholesale shift in markets perceptions. All of a sudden, the expected value of the collateral (i.e. houses) for much of the lending that went on for the past decade will change. Right now, when valuing the collateral, market participants including banks are extrapolating the current pace of house price declines for another two to three years; this has a significant impact on the amount of delinquencies, foreclosures and credit losses that lenders are expected to face. More home sales and smaller price declines means fewer homeowners will be underwater on their mortgages. They will thus have less incentive to walk away and opt for foreclosure. A milder house-price decline scenario could lead to increases in the market value of a lot of the securitized mortgages that have been responsible for $300 billion of write-downs in the past year. Even if write-backs do not occur, stabilizing collateral values will have a huge impact on the markets perception of risk related to housing, the financial system, and the economy. We are of course experiencing a serious housing bust, with serious economic consequences that are still unfolding. The odds are that the reverberations will lead to subtrend growth for a couple of years. Nonetheless, housing led us into this credit crisis and this recession. It is likely to lead us out. And that process is underway, right now. Mr. Moulle-Berteaux is managing partner of Traxis Partners LP, a hedge fund firm based in New York. - Last Post by: VVance on 05/06/2008 @ 12:34 PM

Man Laws...please add if necessary (by: BConz)

Man Laws - Latest from the International Council of Man Laws 1: Under no circumstances may two men share an umbrella. 2: It is OK for a man to cry ONLY under the following Circumstances: (a) When a heroic dog dies to save its master. (b) The moment Angelina Jolie starts unbuttoning her Blouse. (c) After wrecking your bosss car. (d) When she is using her teeth. 3: Any Man who brings a camera to a bachelor party may be legally killed and eaten by his buddies. 4: Unless he murdered someone in your family, you must bail a friend out of jail within 12 hours. 5: If youve known a guy for more than 24 hours, his sister is off limits forever unless you actually marry her. 6: Moaning about the brand of free beer in a buddys fridge is forbidden. However complain at will if the temperature is unsuitable. 7: No man shall ever be required to buy a birthday present for another man. In fact, even remembering your buddys birthday is strictly optional. At that point, you must celebrate at a strip bar of the birthday boys choice. 8: On a road trip, the strongest bladder determines pit stops, not the weakest. 9: When stumbling upon other guys watching a sporting event, you may ask the score of the game in progress, but you may never ask whos playing. 10: You may flatulate in front of a woman only after you have brought her to climax. If you trap her head under the covers for the purpose of flatulent entertainment, shes officially your girlfriend. 11: It is permissible to drink a fruity alcohol drink only when youre sunning on a tropical beach ... and its delivered by a topless model and only when its free. 12: Only in situations of moral and/or physical peril are you allowed to kick another guy in the nuts. 13: Unless youre in prison, never fight naked. 14: Friends dont let friends wear Speedos. Ever. Issue closed. 15: If a mans fly is down, thats his problem, you didnt see anything. 16: Women who claim they "love to watch sports" must be treated as spies until they demonstrate knowledge of the game and the ability to drink as much as the other sports watchers. 17: A man in the company of a hot, suggestively dressed woman must remain sober enough to fight. 18: Never hesitate to reach for the last beer or the last slice of pizza, but not both, thats just greedy. 19: If you compliment a guy on his six-pack, youd better be talking about his choice of beer. 20: Never join your girlfriend or wife in discussing a friend of yours, except if shes withholding sex pending your response. 21: Phrases that may NOT be uttered to another man While lifting weights: a) Yeah, Ba-by, Push it! b) Cmon, give me one more! Harder! c) Another set and we can hit the showers! 22: Never talk to a man in a bathroom unless you are on equal footing: i.e., both urinating, both waiting In line, etc. For all other situations, an almost imperceptible nod is all the conversation you need. 23: Never allow a telephone conversation with a woman to go on longer than you are able to have sex with her. Keep a stopwatch by the phone. Hang up if necessary. 24: The morning after you and a girl who was formerly "just a friend" have carnal, drunken monkey sex, the fact that youre feeling weird and guilty is no reason for you not to nail each other again before the discussion occurs about what a big mistake it was. 25: It is acceptable for you to drive her car. It is not acceptable for her to drive yours. 26: Thou shalt not buy a car in the colors of brown, pink, lime green, orange or sky blue. 27: The girl who replies to the question "What do you want for Christmas?" with "If you loved me, youd know what I want!" gets an Xbox. End of story. 28: There is no reason for guys to watch Ice Skating or Mens Gymnastics. Ever. 29: Weve all heard about people having guts or balls. but do you really know the difference between them? In an effort to keep you informed, the definition of each is listed below: "GUTS" is arriving home late after a night out with the guys, being assaulted by your wife with a broom, and having the guts to say, "are you still cleaning or are you flying somewhere?" " BALLS" is coming home late after a night out with the guys smelling of perfume and beer, lipstick on your collar, slapping your wife on the ass and having the balls to say, "Youre next!" I hope this clears up any confusion, The International Council of Manlaws, Ltd. - Last Post by: BConz on 05/06/2008 @ 12:32 PM

I have an AWESOME new N/O/O ONLY Product (by: JOHNRON)

A very unique product that so far, I think only my investores have come up with.... There is NO Credit Check, no FICO or asset requirement.... HOWEVER; it is pretty much FULL DOC, just not called that. Rates as low as 4.5% which are tied to the currency markets.. these rates are not fixed and also not neg am. TO QUALIFY: *Non Owner Property ONLY *75% LTV MAX *1-4 UNITS *You will need to take the average of the last two years tax returns.. GROSS INCOME. Multiply that number by 5. Subtract all borrowers liabilities. This number will be the max loan amount they qualify for. Example: $200,000 per year in gross income before write offs X 5 = $1,000,000 (grossed up income) - $700,000 liabilities = $300,000 max loan amount. Debt Raitos, asset reqmts, tradelines, credit is NOT necessary anymore. If they qualify for the above formula, they can be approved. This product is geared more for young professionals who are looking to buy their first N/O/O or vacation home and can qualify with 25% down and no credit. Borrowers with 4-5+ homes, the liabilities start to add up. Unlimited Cash out, refi r/t, purchase... gift money okay.. Borrow money from anyone with no credit and buy a house. The main issue is if the borrower has strong taxes to show. Call me with questions - Last Post by: JOHNRON on 05/06/2008 @ 12:23 PM

Stand Alone 2nds W/ Any Fico Score (by: PBFinancial)

We go up to 55% CLTV on all California Residential Properties and Commercial Properties. We do lend behind neg am loans, but gross up the first. CALL POUYAN DIRECTLY FOR PRICING We specialize in the following types of private hard money real estate loans: ----We lend in all California Counties ----Less than 499 fico score ----No cash-out limits ----No Money out of pocket ----No seasoning on title ----No Business license of CPA letter ----Stated Income OKAY for owner or non-owner properties ----One score of No score NO Problem ----Notice of default bail-out, with cash-out ----Foreclosures bail-out, with cash-out ----Real Estate Equity Loans ----No Fico ----Commercial/Income producing hard money loans ----1st and 2nd position loans, on residential and commercial ----Residential Loan amounts---$100,000.00 to $5,000,000.00 ----Commercial Loan amounts---$200,000.00-$50,0000,000.00 Pouyan Broukhim PB Financial Group Corp. 310-289-0900 Office 310-990-6890 Cell PBroukhim@PBFinancialGrp.com - Last Post by: PBFinancial on 05/06/2008 @ 12:11 PM

Poll closes Friday morning

Each Friday, we here at Ballpark Frankness want to do a completely unscientific but hopefully interesting poll. This week's topic centers around your concerns (or non-concerns) about the Rays' stadium proposal. We'll post the results next Friday, with the next question.

UPDATE: So far, 714 votes have come in from all over the country. We've also had hits in Japan, South Korea, France and England. To be honest, it's a little surpring that waterfront location concerns are outpacing the concerns about the cost of a new ballpark.

Five-day financing crash course. Day 2: What the team's paying for

Day 2: What the team's paying for

The second in a five-day examination of the finances surrounding a new stadium, this section addresses the financial offer the Rays are making to build a new stadium. For previous coverage, see here.

Background: The Tampa Bay Rays plan to commit $150-million toward the construction of a $450-million waterfront stadium. Initially, the Rays said they would make roughly $10-million a year lease payments to the city, that when bonded, would generate the cash up front. Now the Rays say they will make the upfront commitment themselves.

Potential problem: What are the Rays actually contributing? If the money is "rent," aren't we just further subsidizing the team for a new stadium?

Analysis: To understand the terms of a new deal, it's important to know the terms at Tropicana Field.

Currently, the Rays rent is tied to ticket sales at Tropicana Field. The city receives $0.63 for each ticket sold (the dollar figure escalates each year based on the average increase of ticket prices across Major League Baseball; in theory it would decrease if baseball ticket prices decreased as well). The first $250,000 generated by that agreement is returned to a capital reserve account for Tropicana Field capital repairs.

The next $100,000 is technically considered the Rays' rent for tax purposes.

Everything over $350,000 is paid to the city to reimburse city expenditures.

Based on last year's attendance, the city will receive about $874,000 this year – or $624,000 excluding the capital reserve funds.

The city also receives a small portion of the naming rights deal with Tropicana. In 2008, the city estimates it will receive about $358,000, with $250,000 again redirected to the capital reserve fund.

Prior to this year, the city also received $1.02 for each car that parked in a Tropicana Field lot. The money was to offset costs related to an air conditioning replacement, and was paid in 2006 and 2007, even when the Rays did not charge for parking.

Using that framework, the Rays' current rent payments to the city total about $750,000 (not including the money redirected to the capital fund). The city's costs related to Tropicana Field this year are roughly $2.5-million.

Rays' response: Though the Rays initially said their $150-million contribution would constitute rent payments, team officials say now that does not mean they won't contribute money to the city in other ways. Also, the Rays said they may be willing to take on more of the city costs than contemplated in the team's original lease.

For discussion: What's a fair rent for the Rays? Is it the approximately $750,000 the team pays now? Should it be tied to ticket sales? Value of the franchise? $15,000 a win?

Coming tomorrow: The redevelopment of Tropicana Field.